Economics News (3rd June, 2025)

India: Resilient Growth Amid Global Headwinds GDP Performance: India's economy expanded by 7.4% in Q4 FY25, with a full-year growth of 6.4%. The industrial sector grew by 6.5%, and exports rose by 6.3%, while imports contracted by 3.7% . Future Projections: The OECD forecasts India's GDP growth at 6.3% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, positioning it as the fastest-growing major economy despite global slowdowns . Banking Sector Outlook: Moody’s Ratings indicates that India's strong domestic economy will support growth, helping banks maintain healthy asset quality and keeping system-wide nonperforming loan levels between 2–3% over the next year . Long-Term Vision: G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant projects that India could become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, up from its current $4.1 trillion, surpassing Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy. Global: Economic Slowdown Intensifies OECD Global Outlook: The OECD has revised its global economic growth outlook due to the adverse impacts of the Trump administration's trade policies, particularly in the United States. The organization now forecasts global growth to slow from 3.3% in the previous year to 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down from earlier estimates of 3.1% and 3.0%. The OECD warns that further protectionism could exacerbate inflation, disrupt supply chains, and unsettle financial markets, with additional 10% U.S. tariff hikes potentially lowering global output by 0.3% over two years. U.S. Economic Impact: The U.S. economy is expected to grow only 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, a significant downgrade from previous projections. Higher import prices driven by tariffs are forecast to reduce consumer purchasing power and dampen business investment. The U.S. budget deficit is also set to rise to 8% of GDP by 2026 due to tax cuts and slower growth. China and Eurozone: China’s economic growth is anticipated to be moderately resilient at 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, supported by subsidies and welfare programs. The Eurozone maintains stable growth projections of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, aided by labor market strength and fiscal measures . 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